The Huddle Breakdown

Celtic vs Celta Vigo: The Data Behind Another Europa League Defeat | Huddle Breakdown Extra Time

Andrew Ramsay — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 19:37:10 GMT

Celtic fell to another Europa League defeat, losing to Celta Vigo at Celtic Park, and on this Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, Martin, James and Alan get into why the Hoops keep hammering teams in the Scottish Premiership and then get carved open in Europe. James reports from his first European night at Paradise. He also shares UEFA tracking data showing Callum McGregor has covered 37.4km in three Europa League games, the second most in the whole competition. Alan breaks down the structural issues behind Celtic giving up more shots than they take, a lopsided left side, and the “Engels-sized hole” on the right. He also says Oliver Sorensen is being set up to fail. The panel discusses board accountability, the roughly £300m in missed Champions League money, the SPFL TV rights tender, and the Conference League coefficient problem facing Scottish football. They finish by previewing Sunday’s lunchtime trip to Easter Road to face bottom-of-the-table Hibs under their new manager, after David Gray’s sacking.

Imagine There’s Consistency

Alan Morrison — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:33:32 GMT

The initial Speedboat League tables were released last week and you can catch them here.

I also released the variance views and will continue to do so periodically throughout the season.

It is early days of course and we have not yet passed 900 minutes.

There are a few different views of underlying performance data that have not yet been published for the new season, so below, for subscribers, is the first release.

Huddle Breakdown Glasgow Meetup

James Dailey — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 13:44:27 GMT

Apologies in advance for the issues people experienced with the email James sent out on October 12th. It was intended as a preliminary gauge of interest and availability, but some people did not receive it, while others had an issue submitting the embedded poll.

Sharing this as a post to try and bypass any email functionality issues.

This all started ab…

Back To Black

Alan Morrison — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 06:31:13 GMT

My eternal thanks to the Yorkshire Whistler who has caught up after my various absences to clear a large backlog.

You’ll need a full pot for this one. Slippers on, sit back, brew up!

05/09/26 The Rangers vs Motherwell

Incident 1

Referee: Duncan Nicholson

Game Minute: 29^th

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Gassama goes down on the box

Outcome: Penalty to TRFC

Evidence:

At 2:05

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Penalty awarded to Rangers

Ball is swung into Motherwell box from right hand side. Gassama appears to be favourite to win the aerial ball, under the challenge of a Motherwell defender. The defender appears not to sense the proximity of Gassama until it is too late. Although the challenge is not a heavy one, he clearly impedes Gassama who is already in mid flight jumping for the ball and is knocked off balance. A foul is committed here.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

05/09/26 St Mirren vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 22nd

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Scales blocks a shot

Outcome: Penalty to St Mirren

Evidence:

At 0:00

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

A volley is drilled at Scales, at force and he has a small amount of time to redact as the ball comes at him. I agree that the contact on the arm is just inside the box and it does clearly strike his arm accidentally. To be considered an offence, the referee has to believe that Scales body shape was made unjustifiably larger as a consequence of this action.

On balance, I can see why the referee felt these criteria had been met, although it does seem a tad harsh on the Celtic man.

As the St Mirren player lines up the shot, Scales positions both arms behind his back, aware of the possible handball offence he is wanting to avoid. However, at the last moment he then puts his arms out wide before, realising the danger and starting to bring them back in again. This outward movement unfortunately goes against him, as the ball strikes his partially extended left arm and so the penalty is given. A subjective call, but one that I can justify why it was made.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 29^th

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Duran scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal disallowed for offside

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal initially given, but disallowed after VAR review for offside

As the ball is squared from the left-hand side, Duran bundles the ball home from close range under pressure from a defender. VAR decides this is the narrowest of offside calls at the point of contact of the cross being made. Having watched back multiple angles of this incident, my gut feeling is that Duran was exactly level as the cross is delivered. Without the benefit of the exact footage VAR used to determine this call, I cannot say it is a clear and obvious error, but given all the evidence available to me, I feel benefit of doubt should have been applied here as it is not conclusively offside and I believe the goal should have stood.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Celtic goal, the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.6 xPts

Incident 3

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 40^th

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Scales goes over in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence:

At 1:51

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As a corner is delivered, Scales appears to be about to win a header, before he drops to ground claiming to have been fouled.

In real time, it is difficult to see why he is appealing, as he jumps, with a defender directly behind him. However, the replay does appear to show a two-handed push from the defender closest to him & believe this contact was significant enough to knock him off balance and impact his ability to win the header. I believe a foul was committed here.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Foul and penalty kick to Celtic the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.54 xPts

Incident 4

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 90^th

Score At Time: 1-2

Incident: Mheuka scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal awarded, VAR then cannot decide to ask referee to monitor who then disallows the goal

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal initially awarded, but then VAR recommends an on-field review of this incident to the referee who makes an offside call and disallows the goal.

As Mheuka latches onto a through ball and slots home, VAR recommend an on-field review, I believe due to technology issues regarding the placement of the lines to determine position at time ball is played. Clearly, there was a failing of the usual process followed here in terms of what VAR would normally do for factual black & white offside decisions.

However, that is for other people to debate, I will stick to my remit, of overseeing the final decisions made in games. Based on the video footage provided, it does appear that Mheuka was narrowly offside as the ball is played to him. Ultimately, I feel the correct decision was therefore reached.

Verdict: CORRECT decision (if not the expected process followed to arrive at this correct decision).

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

09/09/26 The Rangers vs St Mirren

Incident 1

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 16^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Kabia crosses under challenge from Fernandez

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As Kabia crosses, there is a question of if he is fouled by Fernandez. In real time this would have been easy to miss, but it does appear that Fernandez’ left foot makes no contact on the ball and treads down on the top of Kabia’s right foot. I suspect if VAR had brought this footage to the referee’s attention, a penalty would have been awarded.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision – foul & penalty kick the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: TRFC +0.46 xPts

Incident 2

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 54^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Gassama goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence:

At 1:15

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As a ball is swung into the St Mirren box, Gassama and his marker both go down. Upon watching the replay, Gassama is clearly tugged back and impeded by his marker. However, as this shirt pull happens just outside the box & isn’t deemed to be a potential red card offence, Var can’t recommend an on-field review.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision – direct free kick & yellow card for stopping a promising attack, is the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 3

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 63^rd

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Sterling fouls Agrafiotis

Outcome: Foul to St Mirren; YC to Sterling

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Foul to St Mirren. Sterling cautioned

Agrafiotis is hauled back by Sterling, and the foul is rightly penalised and Sterling cautioned. Given how far wide Agrafiotis is when he is fouled and it looks likely his next touch is not going to be directly bearing down on goal centrally, I agree this is not the denial of an obvious goalscoring opportunity (red card) & that it is stopping a promising attack (yellow card).

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

20/09/26 Celtic vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: John Beaton

Game Minute: 16^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Fernandez on YC challenges Nygren

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

Fernandez does appear to impede Nygren in this passage of play, but the contact is accidental and for me just a foul. I’m not convinced it meets the criteria of stopping a promising attack (and therefore a 2nd yellow card) on the basis Nygren’s touch is quite heavy and its likely the covering Rangers defender who played the ball, would still have got there first, even if Nygren isn’t impeded. I can’t say with 100% certainty who would have got there first, but there is enough doubt for me to support not showing a second yellow card for an SPA here.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision (Celtic free kick only, no yellow card, the expected outcome).

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

10/10/26 The Rangers vs Motherwell

Incident 1

Referee: Matthew McDeirmid

Game Minute: 24^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Kelsey scores for TRFC

Outcome: Goal to TRFC

Evidence: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cq98zdd3ggj8t#Line-ups

At 1:30

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal awarded to Rangers

Kelsey sees the ball strike his body whilst he is off balance on the ground, before he picks himself and scores. Under current handball laws, the guidance is, even if it is accidental handball, If the ball touches the scorer’s hand or arm and he scores immediately afterwards, the goal is disallowed, even if the touch was a complete accident. On this basis, I do not believe the goal should have stood.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision – goal disallowed for handball, the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: TRFC +0.6 xPts

11/10/26 Motherwell vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 53^rd

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Fadinger blocks McGregor shot

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

McGregor’s shot is blasted at the Motherwell defender, at speed & proximity. There is accidental contact on his left arm, and he swings his body around to block the shot. For me, the hand/arm is not unnaturally extended and is slightly tucked in, if anything. I feel the correct, no decision, call was made here.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks, as always, to the Yorkshire Whistler.

You’ll note no Heart of Midlothian games reviewed in the last period. Sadly, bandwidth at both ends precludes extending scope.

Whilst the last weekend past off relatively issues free, there were plenty of errors over the period when I was away. Whit ye like!

The sum total is as follows:

So far Celtic are estimated to have lost 1.14 points from refereeing errors and The Rangers benefitted by 0.46 points. A difference of 1.6 expected points in The Rangers favour.

After nine matches, Celtic leads The Rangers by four points.

Celtic 7, Heart of Midlothian 1 - SPFL - 18th October 2026

Alan Morrison — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 06:22:33 GMT

A match where many of the numbers might have hinted at a variance led smash and grab, but where old standards packing scores and xG come to our cognitive rescue.

A veritable numbers feast.

Celtic 7-1 Hearts | The Data Behind the Demolition + Celta Vigo Preview

Andrew Ramsay — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 18:51:01 GMT

Celtic thrash Hearts 7-1 at Celtic Park, and James and Alan dig into the data behind the Scottish Premiership demolition. Hearts had more possession and more shots but were blown away on xG. It’s a scoreline that echoes Germany 7-1 Brazil, and the packing numbers tell a similar story. We break down why Hearts’ bold possession game plan backfired, how Callum Osmand’s first professional start on the left wing set the tone, Benjamin Nygren’s movement, Kieran Tierney’s performance, and whether Celtic’s pace up front makes them a counter-attacking force in the Europa League. We also ask whether the 7-1 really fixed Celtic’s structural problems, use MLB payrolls and analytics staff to look at how smaller clubs close resource gaps, and preview Celtic vs Celta Vigo. The topics include xG, variance, set pieces, game state and what the result means for the season ahead.

Benfica 4, Celtic 1 - Europa League - 15th October 2026

Alan Morrison — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:08:21 GMT

I’d almost suggest you ignore the team stats as the real story of this match was the picture as it was at half time. The second half was entertaining, but forget all that “game of two halves” guff, the meaningful action had concluded.

But here they are, anyway!

Celtic Going to Pieces Without the “Set”?

James Dailey — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:26:57 GMT

The season remains relatively young, so extrapolating data based upon just eight or nine games is generally not a good idea. With that in mind, I decided to take an initial look at how Celtic and Hearts have been progressing so far this season with corners.

Why only corners? They are by some distance the highest frequency set piece that result in shots, so sample size is less of an issue. For example, through eight league games, Celtic have exactly one shot from an indirect free kick, zero from direct, and one from a throw-in, versus 24 from corners. By comparison, Hearts have seven via indirect free kicks, two via direct, and zero from throw-ins.

Let us begin with xG for and conceded and the difference. We see the relative level deteriorated last season in attack with the level conceded also at the high end of the range from previous seasons, combined for a difference that was comparable to the 2020-2021 season. This season has slipped into a negative difference with the level of xG conceded more than triple the lowest rate conceded during the 30-game 2019-2020 season.

Benfica 4-1 Celtic: Set Up to Fail? Tounekti, Høgh & Hearts Preview | Extra Time

Andrew Ramsay — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:01:41 GMT

Celtic were beaten 4-1 by Benfica in Lisbon in the Europa League, and on this Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, Martin, Alan and James break down why. Alan uses packing data to show that Benfica cut through Celtic’s front three 14 times in the first half alone, and asks why Martin O’Neill left Oliver Sørensen in a number 10 role that doesn’t suit him. The guys go through all four goals and Viljami Sinisalo’s goalkeeping. Alan’s data shows how much Sebastian Tounekti’s output drops in big games compared with Gianluca Prestianni, and the panel discusses Kasper Høgh’s struggles and whether Camilo Durán should now start through the middle. To finish, they preview Celtic v Hearts in the Scottish Premiership, covering Hearts’ set-piece threat, their new style of play and the luck that has gone their way so far. Plus details of our supporters’ meetup in Glasgow city centre on Monday 26 October.

Ben Lyttleton: Martin O’Neill, Moneyball & Why Celtic Need a Sporting Director | The Huddle Breakdown Interview

Andrew Ramsay — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 16:28:22 GMT

Football author and executive Ben Lyttleton (Twelve Yards, Edge, Football School) joins Alan and James on The Huddle Breakdown Interview to talk about how data analytics is changing football and what that means for Celtic. Ben goes behind the scenes of the Netherlands’ penalty data before the 2010 World Cup final. He explains why your best penalty taker should go first or fourth, and why most Premier League transfers fail. He also makes the case for a sporting director as the “guardian of the culture.” Then the conversation turns to Martin O’Neill. Ben explains how the man-management strengths that won Celtic the Scottish Premiership title are now being held against him, and how a well-run club should handle a short-term slump. They also cover over-optimisation, the comeback of the dribbling winger, and why creativity may be the one thing AI can’t predict. Ben ends with why football is still a force for good.

A Notable Landmark

Alan Morrison — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 10:37:06 GMT

In this piece you will discover a “since records began” noteworthy achievement by a player in the most recent tie versus Motherwell, what it says about the player and the team, and, as ever, the important contexts into what we read into such numbers.

Is Shaun Maloney Really Running Celtic Now? | Motherwell Breakdown & Benfica Preview

Andrew Ramsay — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 00:25:09 GMT

Celtic produced their most dominant performance in weeks at Fir Park, and Alan and James break down the data from the Motherwell win. After Liam Scales talked about the player meetings, has Celtic’s game model shifted back towards Ange-ball? Is Shaun Maloney now effectively running the team under Martin O’Neill? The guys cover the expected goals (xG), the packing numbers behind Kieran Tierney’s huge game and Bauer’s man-of-the-match display. They also cover Jota’s emotional return after three years away and why a striker’s underlying numbers don’t match the doubters. Then they look at the Scottish Premiership weekend: Rangers’ flattering win over Kilmarnock, why Hearts are a real title threat, and the “two Frankensteins” in Glasgow. To finish, a Europa League preview of Benfica, and the hard truth about how far Scotland has fallen in Opta’s European league rankings.

Motherwell 0, Celtic 2 - SPFL - 11th October 2026

Alan Morrison — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:32:38 GMT

A relatively passive Motherwell were the unexpected but perfect team to get Celtic back to winning ways after a week of identify loss and direction drift.

Whatever was said at the team meeting Liam Scales alluded to in the press, the result seemed to be a return to Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rodgers adjacent football, with some quirks.

Motherwell were overwhelmed and a strong bench hinted at potential as yet unrealised for the champions.

Celtic's £300m Left on the Table, Scotland Déjà Vu & Motherwell Preview

Andrew Ramsay — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 21:25:49 GMT

Is the Celtic board as successful as it claims? On this week’s Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, James benchmarks Celtic FC against Club Brugge, Sporting CP and PSV Eindhoven on revenue, matchday income, wages, player amortisation and player trading. His conclusion is that weak player trading and missed Champions League football have cost the club £300M or more under Dermot Desmond’s model, and that domestic trophies hide how far behind its European peers it has fallen. Alan explains why Scotland’s Nations League loss to Slovenia felt so familiar to Celtic fans. He also covers the knives coming out for the new manager, and why Ryan Christie, not Lewis Ferguson, should partner Billy Gilmour. Then he breaks down the Speedboat League variance data: Celtic are losing almost half a goal a game to poor finishing and to opposition goalkeepers having the best run of any SPFL side against them. Plus Falkirk’s upswing, Dundee’s “cockroach” luck, and a full Motherwell vs Celtic preview ahead of Sunday at Fir Park.

Board Benchmarking

James Dailey — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 15:26:53 GMT

Is analyzing Celtic Football Club’s performance levels an inherently paradoxical exercise?

There’s £66 million of cash in the bank and this trophy haul over the last 10 seasons, so how dare we peasants question the king?!

While my view has been that these objective truths have been really poor indicators to gauge Celtic’s board performance, I also fully appreciate why some/many would.

This column is intended as part analysis and part editorial.

As Gavin at Scotland’s Coefficient diligently chronicles and analyzes, the state of the club game in Scotland has been in competitive decline. The UEFA club coefficient stands at 26.25 as of this writing, placing it 19th.

Importantly, that is over 8 points behind Cyprus (34.694) in 15th, which would trigger additional access to the riches of European club competitions. At the same time, Scotland stands just ahead of Croatia (25.906), Sweden (25.75), with Azerbaijan in 25th (23.688).

Why reference 25? That has been around the floor for the coefficient when Celtic were effectively a unipolar entity in Europe post-2012 liquidation of Rangers, or even during past relatively brief periods of national decline since 1960. Importantly, the resurgence in the coefficient coincided with a Rangers surging in the Europa League, with a top 10 penetration for a brief period.

Fortunately, only Croatia has 2 teams in league stages, so hopefully Hearts and Celtic can earn enough to hold them off this season, as the next five countries have only one club remaining.

For the club coefficient to have a plausible scenario of returning to the 20 to 25 ranking area with two clubs with the financial resources of Celtic and Rangers is an indictment on how woeful the league has become. The lack of profits from player trading has also been stark - Aberdeen, Hearts, and Hibs combined for roughly £31 million over the past 10 seasons, with £11 million last season alone.

For the vast majority of the post-2012 era, Celtic SHOULD have won the league every season due to the combination of a massive resource advantage and very poorly run clubs as competitors. The relative dominance in Cup competitions was, in my analysis, largely a result of the intersection of resource advantage and the high quality coaching of control-focused game models under Brendan Rodgers and Ange Postecoglou…and some good old randomness.

Squeaking by poor Hearts teams under Craig Levein, the League Cup final in December 2019, and multiple squeaky bum wins last season under Martin O’Neill were examples of fortune shining brightly in other occasions. That’s football!

I wrote this piece about 18-months ago chronicling similar dynamics in Serbia, with Red Star now going for 10 in-a-row in the current 2026-2027 league season, and on a 6 in-a-row run in the Serbia Cup. If only they had a League Cup competition in which to prioritize playing 1st team starters to have had an unprecedented sextuple treble t-shirt to sell!

Variance Never Sleeps

Alan Morrison — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 06:21:37 GMT

We’ve covered the early season status of the reimagined league tables taking into account xG, projected forward to the final positions, and laid out the impact of finishing and keeper play variance.

Now we move to the voodoo that football do. Or something.

Here we carve out the impact of those big moments in football that leaves a coach with grey hairs. The penalties, the own goals, the red cards. The stuff that gets dumped on your team when you least expect it. And it matters, very materially so.

Let’s see how.

Hearts and The Luck of the Irish

Alan Morrison — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 06:30:36 GMT

Having established who is in prime position to win the Speedboat, and projected the final points tally, we now move onto the fun stuff.

A reminder that the Lucky Leprechaun League is the manager’s friend. They pick their goalkeepers and potential goal scorers in good faith and trust they will “do the business”.

More often than not, reality does not meet expectations, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worst. And it doesn’t necessarily even itself out over a season.

Yep, we are in the whacky world of variance, possibly the least understood and most understated aspect of football.

Tennis Ball Gate, the Celtic Statement & Why the League Table Lies | The Huddle Breakdown

Andrew Ramsay — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 02:01:58 GMT

James and Alan break down Tennis Ball Gate at St Andrews and the club's furious Saturday night statement. They ask whether the growing split between the Celtic board, Dermot Desmond and the support can be repaired, or whether escalation and personal targeting will only deepen it. The pair look at why domestic trophies and a healthy balance sheet can't justify Celtic's European record against similarly sized clubs, and what proper benchmarking, expected trophies and modern football governance would look like. James explains his "Anderlechtification" fear. In the second half, Alan relaunches the Speedboat League, his expected points table for the Scottish Premiership, along with the Banked League projection. They cover xG, luck, variance and randomness, why the league table lies, whether Hibs were right to sack David Gray, and how tight the Celtic vs Rangers title race really is after seven games. More data-driven Celtic analysis at huddlebreakdown.com.

And The 2026-27 Champions Will Be...........

Alan Morrison — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 06:30:44 GMT

The next view in the Speedboat series is perhaps the one you’re most waiting for.

The Banked It league takes the actual points achieved – that’s safe, no one can take those away – then projects forward based on the expected points profile estimated so far.

This is the projection into the future. Not a prediction.

Again, it is only seven games in and a penalty here or there, for example, will have had a material impact.

We’ll get to variance later, but for now, who are our ~~definite future~~ potential champions?

You Don’t Always Get What You Deserve

Alan Morrison — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 07:03:30 GMT

Herein the first Speedboat League of the season. Seven games are not ideal, probably the ol’ 900 minutes is more indicative, or even once each team has played each other once.

But life is less than perfect and there is an international week to negotiate.

So, here’s yer dinner!

A reminder: the Speedboat League table is based on the xG “scores” per team per game, and a calculation based on that which gives a probable points value per game associated with the respective xGs.

It’s what you SHOULD have won.