Is anxiety about this tie a form of irrational PTSD from past travails?

What exactly could we all be in for as the two teams compete to gain access to Champions League riches?

There are various models to reference like ELO and similar power rankings, but as a group they generally have LASK at a higher level than either Hearts or Rangers, and around the 2nd tier of Belgian clubs like Anderlecht and Genk.

In other words, an opponent to certainly be respected, but no reason to be feared. However, a good bit above opponents to whom we have all been traumatized by in recent years, like Maribor, Malmo, and Kairat.

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This article contains the full and comprehensive stat pack from the Dundee United League Cup tie. Subscribers get full team, player, and opponent data plus a nominated Bhoy of the Match.

Note that player and match data beyond the very superficial is not available from ANY public data supplier for the Scottish League Cup and Scottish FA Cup. This is the ONLY place for comprehensive match data for ALL Celtic domestic Cup matches.

Please subscribe for full access to this and much more.

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Therefore, in the spirit of eating my own dog food, I should redeem myself with a more thoughtful piece on the hard working South Korean.

In the rest of this piece for subscribers, you will see how his 2025-26 season (47 appearances) compares with the prior two, where he was mainly used as a substitute.

Then, you will see how his performance numbers compare to other wide forwards.

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As stated in June, my base case for the 2026-2027 season was that the club would invest heavily in the squad this summer, and that the performance level was likely to bounce back from a depressed 2025-2026.

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Why was I confident in there being material spending?

Because that has been Celtic’s recent history!

It is also why I have disagreed with much of the related criticisms over last season about the club being “cheap.”

The current season’s data assumes £9 million for Hassan, £6 million for Baur, and the sale of Engels for £25 million. Obviously, this is an exercise using estimates in order to try and provide context for what is unfolding.

The club tried to spend over £10 million on Kasper Dolberg last September, which would have taken the buys last season right into the range of recent context.

This first section has nothing to do with whether the players signed/sold have been wise, but rather a simple examination of ins and outs relative to fees. In a scenario where Hatate, Johnston (possibly less likely now), and Nygren exit this summer, spending of £40-£50 million on fees would be inline with recent behavior.

Broader context on the state of the squad is also vitally important, obviously.

Coming off what was an extremely chaotic season at the club, including a material amount of severe long term injuries to key players, the arrival of Hogh, Hassan, Duran, and Baur certainly feels pretty good.

But how good is the squad relative to recent history?

Summer 2018 was a sliding doors point for Celtic, in my opinion. It ended up being quite a mess that ultimately manifested in the acrimonious departure of Brendan Rodgers the following February, and took place as the analytics revolution was still relatively early.

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It was around that time, according to co-founder of Statsbomb, Ted Knutson, that Celtic were an early adopter of his company’s higher quality data. My interview with Ted last summer where he shared that history is available for subscribers here.

I stress that the first column in the graphic above is HYPOTHETICAL and done using names that were rumored at the time. I am not suggesting the likes of Castagne or McGinn were ever close to joining Celtic, but using them as part of displaying the level of quality and depth that seemed plausible.

Like last summer, the specific details of what occurred in summer 2018 is probably never to be known by the public, with different versions from the main people involved as his human nature.

A common thread across the other two squads listed is that neither manifested in relative success at the European level, for a variety of reasons, but were good enough to maintain domestic hegemony. Indeed, that issue has been persistent for nearly a quarter century, at this point.

As we stare down another Champions League playoff qualifier versus LASK, and hopefully entry into the league phase, what is the quality and depth of the current squad relative to the ones I have shown above?

What progress has been made to make the team more competitive at that level?

Have the persistent issues in midfield and in transition been addressed?

The 2019-2020 squad listed above had youth, athleticism, and high levels of technical skill in midfield, though it was materially misused, in my opinion.

While diminished from his Barcelona-legend period, Forster was still capable of winning a game(s).

Is Sinisalo as number 1 likely to win games like Forster did at times? Would a signing like Nick Pope be more like Forster vs Lazio and Schmeichel 2024-2025, or Joe Hart at Celtic?

Much may still change between now and September 4th. The exit of a manager with a long history of attempting to “blow up” the recruitment process at clubs where he’s worked suggests that a major impediment to getting deals done was excised, for a second time.

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In many ways, we may be on a Back to the Future-like journey, with Martin O’Neill as manager and getting the squad depth and quality directionally improved versus last season’s.

But is that path enough to stem the trend seemingly in place since that fateful summer of 2018 and add another chapter to the O’Neill storybook?

If only O’Neill could borrow Marty’s DeLorean and bring Henrik Larsson Back to the Future.

That isn’t to say this all a “the opposition were crap” diluting of Celtic’s performance.

For subscribers, there is the full statistical pack with consistent and comprehensive match data, with some eye watering numbers.

And who was Bhoy of the Match, as there were some stellar candidates beyond the obvious?

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This week’s column is intended as a gentle reminder as to why extrapolating domestic dominance against poorly run opposition should probably not be extrapolated analytically when trying to forecast into the future.

During the first weeks of Ange Postecoglou’s tenure, for example, Celtic pummeled Dundee 6-0 on August 8th, 2021, while posting 4.51 in NPxG on 27 non-penalty shots.

A week later, Celtic would win a closer League cup game versus Hearts 3-2, but while posting 5.38 NPxG on 35 shots (all data via Wyscout).

As I have often said, nuance along historical timelines is not a normal part of our memories - we generally like to summarize periods using highlights when outcomes are positive and lowlights when the opposite.

Along the Postecoglou first-season-timeline, getting knocked out of Champions League qualifier by Midtjylland and then squeaking by AZ Alkmaar to avoid being knocked out of Europe altogether occurred during the stretch which included those hammerings. As did a loss in Ange’s first derby, and 4-3 loss away to Real Betis in what was analogous to a basketball game. Celtic remained well down the domestic table into October.

This periodic walk down memory is not to suggest the current season is a direct analog with that 2021-2022 season, but there are elements of similarity relative to major squad overhaul.

More importantly, let us not all fall into the analytical trap of drawing too many conclusions from a single game!

Even the 2020-2021 season had a different experiential timeline at this point of that season. The first league game was a 5-1 hammering of Hamilton Academical with 4.36 NPxG on 26 shots, and a 6-0 destruction of KR Reykjavik with 3.80 NPxG on 25 shots in that odd season’s first Champions League qualifier.

In fact, Celtic would not lose it’s first domestic game until the October 17th derby, with just the 1-1 draw away to Kilmarnock on August 9th the only dropped points through the first nine league games.

Apologies, but feel an obligation to contextualize why the following analysis was conducted after what was an absolute and very enjoyable destruction of Neil McCann’s Kilmarnock side.

Obviously, a 5-1 victory with over 5 in NPxG (depending on xG model) and over 30 shots was a very welcome performance and result.

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That said, a further trend was followed in that a win was eked out regardless of performance, which, based purely on xG difference, was merited.

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As of this writing, no news has been announced, but we trudge on nonetheless as if it may be coming.

Baur’s 2024-2025 season did not include material minutes at any particular club/level, so I focused this exercise on his 2023-2024 season in Bundesliga 3 playing at Freiberg II, and then 2025-2026 at Paderborn in Bundesliga 2.

The first thing that jumped out to me across both seasons is his positional flexibility and that he has played in a variety of roles across midfield and also as a wide attacker at times. I decided to keep his peer group for benchmarking as central midfielders for both seasons. For both seasons I have included a teammate with whom to compare that also played in central midfield.

The first graphic for the season showed him to be a material attacking contributor, primary dead ball deliverer, and generally a very attack-minded passer when he played the ball forward. Average chance quality for shooting not good and volume of open play shot assists (which were required to generate expected assists) on the low side.

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This will be painful as he is one of the leadership group, to flaunt that much loved phrase, an international player with multi–World Cup experiences, and whose return at the end of last season coincided with the winning run that led to a double.

How difficult will he be to replace?

Let’s find out!

*Sigh*

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Last season was a turbulent one for Celtic FC and its fans. The club seemed dysfunctional at every level, and relationships were strained between the players and coaches, the board, and the fans. Performances were patchy. There was no plain sailing as the club was buffeted by storms for the duration of the campaign. Like, I am sure, most other Huddle Breakdown readers and listeners, one event shocked me to my core - Martin O’Neill said that he didn’t much care for Expected Goals!

How could The Blessed Martin dismiss the foundational metric of probability-based football analysis so casually? My soul was torn by his treacherous disdain for the Mother of All Metrics.

Aye, well maybe. Let’s take a closer look at what we get from our favourite estimate-of-likelihood.

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Boniface moved to USG in 2022-2023, which was the same season Joel Mvuka went to FC Lorient for €5.5 million. Patrick Berg went to Lens for €4.5 million the prior season, and Jens Hauge to AC Milan for €4.8 million during the COVID season, both of whom are back at Bodo/Glimt for sums below for which they were sold.

More recently, in the 2023-2024 season they sold Hugo Vetlesen to Club Brugge for €7.75 million and Faris Moumbagne to Marseille for €8 million, with the former being a productive attacking midfielder in Belgium. They purchased Albert Gronbaek in 2022-2023 for €4.8 from Aarhus, then sold him for what appears to be the current club record sale of €15 million to Stade Rennais in 2024-2025. He’s gone on loans to Southampton, Genoa, and Hamburg, with the latter just paying €4.7 million to acquire him permanently.

Bodo/Glimt have been part of the peer group within the player trading benchmarking I conduct on Celtic each season - the most recent edition available here. Given the history, and particularly with attacking players, it is understandable for people to have some concerns about a “curse.”

Of course, in Huddle Breakdown Land, I see more misattribution vs a curse.

This first graphic displays basic performance metrics from their respective domestic league seasons, with 2026 current 15 games into the season. Per a quick web search, it appears their annual revenues have more than doubled over this period, with the latest report for 2025 somewhere around £50 million (estimate given fluidity of exchange rates).

We see from the performance metrics that the team’s level of domestic dominance has increased along with their revenues and correlated with their ascension into the 2025-2026 Champions League.

The club’s operating model is a unique one and been extremely effective, blending home grown talent with selective recruitment - mostly from other Norwegian and Scandinavian leagues.

But the story has not been similar to an analytics-fueled explosion in player trading volumes, ala Tony Bloom-related clubs. It seems to be heavily impacted by an incredibly well coached and consistent game model - think Askou’s Motherwell on steroids for those unfamiliar.

But what about Kasper Hogh, specifically?

The Dane began in his home country prior to moving from Aalborg to Stabaek for €350k in 2023, then to Bodo/Glimt for €700k in 2024.

He turns 26 on December 12, 2026, so is in his prime years. We can see from this first benchmarking graphic that he earned his move to Bodo/Glimt via limited minutes at Stabaek, but was a relatively productive striker in that brief stint. He was more of a finisher than a creator - that would come later at Bodo/Glimt. Some differences in style of play and his utilization within a far less attacking side at Stabaek were evident.

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